Why Apple has won and Oracle and Google have lost

Working in the field of software modernization and being specifically focused a lot of the time on modernizing client/server applications, that is, bringing native applications to the web, I couldn't help but wonder if we haven't come full circle already.  

Many years ago with Sun's release of Java as the write-once, run anywhere answer to every developer's problems, it looked like Java Applets might be the wave of the future.  That never did quite catch on as Sun had hoped.  It was plagued mainly by the practical problem of having a platform that runs on every operating system in the same if not very similar fashion.  Because of this "feature", the platform could be limiting at times.  I believe that this type of limitation and the advance of dynamic HTML, CSS, and the web platform in general led to a huge number of web-based applications and a very small number of Java client applications.

Fast forward from then to now and Apple has taken a lesson from Java and decided early on to do things the "right" way.  Of course, the "right" way means being in control of the hardware platform as well as the software platform.  Because Apple controls the whole environment, "apps" are less likely to break, testing is simplified quite a bit, and even development to some extent is simplified.  The result is the creation of some truly amazing client applications for consumers.

Google's Android is a player, but it is starting to suffer from what Java suffered from.  I am not an Android user, but I have seen the complaints that some applications are only supported by newer versions of the software but some hardware platforms do not support the newer version.  This comes across as an Android problem, but surely Apple has the same problem with their platforms?

For some reason, when I can't get an App for my iphone 3G because it doesn't sport the right hardware, it feels like MY problem for being 3 years behind the technology.  That's probably because it isn't just a hardware compatibility issue, the device itself feels clunky and dated compared to newer versions of the iPhone.  Android hardware is so varied and different that the same comparison really cannot be made unless it is among one manufacturer.

Anyway, my point is that Apple has created this beautiful sandbox where these great apps can be created that use the web, but are not web applications.  They are client/server applications with the server being multi-tiered now.  Just look at the articles that have come out regarding iCloud and the amount of app traffic vs. web traffic.  iOS is really what Java should have been.

We haven't seen the push at the Enterprise level yet.  Most customers want a web application, a more and more sophisticated web application, but still, not native apps.  More and more, however, companies are looking at iPads as tools for their workforce and once that happens, their new apps are going to be native iOS apps.

Now the big question remaining is what is Oracle going to do about it?  Does Java have a chance or has it's time passed?